Let the race for 2012 begin...

[The Unknown Caller]

It's not worth engaging BGAB; he doesn't want to discuss the actual state of the Wisconsin race because that would mean admitting things like Wisconsin being nearly bottom of the nation in job creation, admitting that recall elections are always at HUGE disadvantages because a built-in 10% of the electorate oppose them under all circumstances and thus vote for the incumbent, and of course, the fact that no-one has yet invented a mode of budgeting which makes stripping public sector workers' rights or the rights of voters into something which helps reduce deficits.

But on the other hand, we should probably see this for what it is. It is fairly revealing that BGAB in his endless quest for distractions from conservative blogs can only find solace in the fact that an existing governor will survive his recall. Again, let's let that sink in; BGAB has the entire US of A to look at and the ONLY good news he can find is that a Republican is going to survive being recalled. Not win a new election, not romp to victory by sole digit margins, but Survive. This is his grand victory.

...well, a few months ago he was claiming that winning elections in Wisconsin was actually a crushing defeat so I guess is is progress?

Now watch him try to reply to this so he can keep refusing to discuss the candidate he refuses to vote for.

[Big Girls Are Best]

It wasn't that long ago that Axelrod, hoping for a distraction from Obama's terrible economy, brought up Romney's dog...but then this happened   

...One tweet was intended as a distraction? 

Well, it wasn't just one tweet...

Dog Seamus ‘Loved’ Trips Atop Family Car, Says Ann Romney (ABC, April 16, 2012)

Seamus the dog : An explanation (Washington Post, March 15, 2012)

There are many other news stories, and now there will even be a book from Simon & Schuster...

[Big Girls Are Best]

Thanks to SuperPAC's, a few millionaires can now outspend the millions who have donated to President Obama's re-election campaign.  The President's campaign will out-raise the Romney campaign, but the pro-Romney SuperPAC's may outspend the President's campaign.

First, Super PACs are legal and both political parties are allowed to use them, right?

Second, President Obama has decided to use Super PACs, too... Obama reverses on super PACs, seeks support (CBS, February 7, 2012)

After the public scolding he gave the Supreme Court over their Citizens United decision during his 2010 State of the Union address, such a reversal to embrace Super PACs really illustrates his desperation and complete lack of a moral compass.

And although a surplus is nice, it's not a ton of good if WI's unemployment rate is still above 8%.

Wait, I’m confused… are you saying an 8% unemployment rate is a negative?     

Besides, your facts are incorrect as Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is 6.7% (seasonally adjusted).  From this graph it looks like the rate was around 7.7% when he took office in January 2011 and has steadily declined since that time.

-----

PS - Do you believe Governor Walker will survive the recall efforts?

[Big Girls Are Best]

Last week Obama surrogate, Ben LaBolt, got PWND by Ashleigh Banfield… 

Ashleigh Banfield On Obama Ad: 'We Don't Want This Crap On Television' (Huffington Post, May 16, 2012)

And this week he got PWND by Anderson Cooper…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIF3Srtmliw

I hardly believe Ms. Banfield and Mr. Cooper have become conservatives which leads me to conclude that the Obama team's attacks against Romney (and private equity firms) are really, really that terrible.

[Big Girls Are Best]

I still maintain that Hillary Clinton will be the VP choice for the 2012 ticket...

Hillary Clinton will be the 2012 veep candidate (Washington Times, May 20, 2012)
The wild and crazy move is all the talk outside the Beltway. One state Democratic leader even tells me the bumper stickers are already printed, sitting in a warehouse in (where else?) Little Rock, Ark. Another party bigwig says she is “99.9 percent sure” the increasingly desperate president planned the whole thing from the beginning...

Step back a minute: What does the president get from keeping Punxsutawney Putz on the ticket? Zippy the chimp. But if he bails on Mr. Biden, picks a woman — bam, base enthusiasm goes through the roof, women come out of the woodwork to vote (for Mrs. Clinton, not for Mr. Obama), and it's 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. for another four years.

[The Unknown Caller]

^ Ever believing this was a serious possibility would make you a fairly poor commentator on political events. Actually still believing it now makes you... let's just say 'wildly out of touch with reality' and leave it at that.

Obama is already going to win the women's vote by probably double digit margins, and only occasional rogue polls disagree. Biden is pretty popular with the electorate whatever conservatives think of him, and he is VERY popular with white male working class voters at the exact time when the GOP have nominated someone who hasn't met a working class male he didn't want to fire. The Democratic base is already at least as fired up as the GOP base; the Republican enthusiasm gap has disappeared. This would look silly and have exactly zero net benefit. There is literally no level on which it makes sense.

[Big Girls Are Best]

^ Ever believing this was a serious possibility would make you a fairly poor commentator on political events. Actually still believing it now makes you... let's just say 'wildly out of touch with reality' and leave it at that...

I was correct about Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska not seeking re-election, right?  So I guess we'll see if my prediction about Ms. Clinton is correct. 

This would look silly and have exactly zero net benefit. There is literally no level on which it makes sense.

Did you happen to catch the article by Robert Reich in which he lays out several reasons why this makes (political) sense?

My Political Prediction for 2012: It's Obama-Clinton (Huffington Post, December 28, 2011)

[The Unknown Caller]

A prediction made six months ago which openly states that it is based on no information is seriously the best evidence that can be devised?

...Wow.

Yeah, and I wouldn't go around citing your predition record given you're on the record about ten times telling us that Romney would NEVER be the nominee, there'd be a contested convention, etc, and we weren't even close to one in the end.

[ryanm]

PS - Do you believe Governor Walker will survive the recall efforts?

He's out-spending Barrett 25:1.  So I will not be surprised if he wins the recall, but I sincerely hope he doesn't.

[ryanm]

Thanks to SuperPAC's, a few millionaires can now outspend the millions who have donated to President Obama's re-election campaign.  The President's campaign will out-raise the Romney campaign, but the pro-Romney SuperPAC's may outspend the President's campaign.

First, Super PACs are legal and both political parties are allowed to use them, right?

Second, President Obama has decided to use Super PACs, too... Obama reverses on super PACs, seeks support (CBS, February 7, 2012)

After the public scolding he gave the Supreme Court over their Citizens United decision during his 2010 State of the Union address, such a reversal to embrace Super PACs really illustrates his desperation and complete lack of a moral compass.

When a system is corrupt, you've got to play the game and win if you want to change it.  Of course there's a pro-Obama SuperPAC.  But I bet he'd prefer an election/campaign system where they weren't allowed.  I know I would.

[The Unknown Caller]

PS - Do you believe Governor Walker will survive the recall efforts?

He's out-spending Barrett 25:1.  So I will not be surprised if he wins the recall, but I sincerely hope he doesn't.

He is colossally out-spending him and he had a long, long time to fundraise while Barrett has had a far smaller window and faced much tighter rules. Plus we know from before that there's a big chunk of the electorate who oppose all recalls on principle because they don't like recall elections and just vote for the incumbent. Reasonably enough, there is a decent chunk of the electorate who really, really dislike Walker, don't like his policies but will vote for him because he's only been there a year and a half and they think he has the right to serve out his term.  Any challenger always faced really, really, really steep odds here. Frankly, the fact that Walker looks like he will only win by single digits isn't a great sign for Republicans.

On the bright side though, BGAB has previously informed us all that when Democrats win recall elections, it's actually a crippling defeat. So presumably if Walker wins, then it's actually a Republican defeat.

[Miami66]

I was correct about Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska not seeking re-election, right

Oh well, We've got Kerrey running now #EVENBETTER

[Big Girls Are Best]

I was correct about Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska not seeking re-election, right

Oh well, We've got Kerrey running now #EVENBETTER

Says the person who was absolutely sure that Senator Nelson was running again... and even linked to a 'website.'  Given your newfound enthusiasm for Bob Kerrey (D-NY), perhaps you may not want to read this...

Poll: Bob Kerrey WAY BEHIND In Nebraska Senate Race (Talking Point Memo, March 27, 2011)
The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Nebraska shows serious trouble for Democratic former Sen. Bob Kerrey, in his effort to go home once again to the state he represented back in the 1990’s.

State Attorney General Jon Bruning leads Kerrey by 54%-37%; state Sen. Deb Fischer leads Kerrey by 48%-38% [lastest polls have her up by 18%], and former state Attorney General and 2000 Senate nominee Don Stenberg leads Kerrey by 52%-38%. The survey of registered voters was conducted from March 22-25, and has a ±3.1% margin of error.

Kerrey has had a disastrous campaign rollout, as TPM has previously documented. And it shows in the new numbers, with his standing among voters actually going down since his move back home.

PPP’s Tom Jensen writes: “Kerrey’s campaign rollout has not been a success. In October his favorability rating in the state was a +5 spread at 39/34. Since then it’s dropped 20 points on the margin to -15 at 36/51. Kerrey’s stayed steady with Democrats but has seen large drops with independents (from 47/24 to 36/38) and with Republicans (from 23/47 to 16/74).”

Further pollster analysis only twists the knife more.

“Ben Nelson was a lot more competitive in polling for reelection than Bob Kerrey is now,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “Nelson’s retirement seems to have hurt Democratic chances of holding the seat.”

When moderate Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson announced his retirement in late December 2011, this was not a simple case of an incumbent’s retirement putting his seat in danger for his party — because Nelson was already in a tough race for re-election, and was easily the most endangered Democratic incumbent at the time.

But before that, the PPP survey conducted from about two months earlier showed Nelson in better shape at the time than Kerrey is now. Bruning led Nelson by 46%-42%, Nelson edged Fischer by 41%-39%, and Stenberg led Nelson by 44%-41%.

#OUCH

[Big Girls Are Best]

First, Super PACs are legal and both political parties are allowed to use them, right?

Second, President Obama has decided to use Super PACs, too... Obama reverses on super PACs, seeks support (CBS, February 7, 2012)

When a system is corrupt, you've got to play the game and win if you want to change it. 

-- Who won the 2008 presidential election?  (Answer: Barack Obama)
-- Who held a super majority in Congress from 2008 – 2010?  (Answer: Democrats)

Since they clearly won the game, why didn't they bother to change the system?

Also, what does that say about a person (and party) who uses something they believe to be 'corrupt'? 

Of course there's a pro-Obama SuperPAC.  But I bet he'd prefer an election/campaign system where they weren't allowed.  I know I would.

He may prefer that, especially since he is being vastly outraised by them.  And republicans have preferred a system by which a majority of union dues weren’t given to democrats… the very democrats who happen to vote on union pensions and contracts.  Corrupt?  Nah!   

BTW, it's highly amusing watching President Obama gladly accept money from private equity firms while bashing Romney for having worked at one.  Never mind the fact that he hired Jeffrey Zients as the Director of OMB, and has Jonathan Lavine as a bundler... both of whom worked at Bain.  Even Anderson Cooper sees the blatant hypocrisy in that!

[Big Girls Are Best]

Yeah, and I wouldn't go around citing your predition record given you're on the record about ten times telling us that Romney would NEVER be the nominee, there'd be a contested convention, etc, and we weren't even close to one in the end.

Yep, you got me there.   Although Ron Paul is still winning delegates, so the GOP convention could still be interesting... but not as interesting as the DNC convention is promising to be in a right-to-work state that just voted against gay marriage.

Anyway, I am about to earn a few points back after the Wisconsin recall election on June 5th in which I predict Gov. Walker will win... and with the Supreme Court decision a few weeks after in which I predict the health care mandate will be struck down.