Author Topic: Let the race for 2012 begin...  (Read 151416 times)

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Offline Tumbling Dice

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4965 on: November 09, 2012, 06:10:32 PM »
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It's interesting that 93% of black voters voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election at a time when unemployment amongst blacks is at 14% and far higher than the national average.  Black voters must really like his personality.

Either that, or they thought they would be in an even worse position with Romney.

That's a possibility.


Offline The Unknown Caller

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4966 on: November 09, 2012, 06:48:02 PM »
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It's interesting that 93% of black voters voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election at a time when unemployment amongst blacks is at 14% and far higher than the national average.  Black voters must really like his personality.

Either that, or they thought they would be in an even worse position with Romney.

That's a possibility.

Uh, yeah, plus lots and lots of other issues like the President's support for Medicaid, pell grants, Medicare, unemployment insurance, the Earned Income Tax Credit, Affirmative Action and countless other federal programs which enjoy colossal support among African Americans and which the Republicans want to gut?

Believe it or not, most voters don't just say "Well gee, unemployment is bad, let's throw the guy in charge out!" however much some people try to run entire campaigns based off the idea that they will. Maybe Republicans should look at the consistency of African American support across the board for Democrats for decades before tossing around garbage theories about how it must be that black people are just voting for their own race.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 06:49:37 PM by The Unknown Caller »

Offline JTBaby

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4967 on: November 09, 2012, 08:07:31 PM »
Greatest beneficiary of said programs ? Red states.

8 out 10 of the richest counties in America voted for Obama.


Tax hikes for the rich are ok. According to the rich.


Offline mdmomof7

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4968 on: November 09, 2012, 08:50:19 PM »
^Are those 8 counties densely populated?

Offline JTBaby

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4969 on: November 10, 2012, 07:28:26 AM »
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^Are those 8 counties densely populated?

With rich people maybe, don't know.

The point here was that rich people apparently don't mind paying higher taxes.

Although i'm sure they appreciate the support of the poor welfare-receiving red states.

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Offline Starman

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4970 on: November 11, 2012, 07:01:51 AM »
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Offline The Unknown Caller

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4971 on: November 11, 2012, 09:46:06 AM »
With more votes being counted, Florida has just been confirmed for the President and he has now surpassed Bush 2004 in the gap between himself and the challenger in the popular vote. Just another note to those who were trying to downplay the President's victory and portray it as a 'squeaker' or 'really close' etc;

1) In the popular vote, the President's final share - which looks like it will be about 50.9% when all votes are counted - will be the highest won by an incumbent President seeking re-election in twenty-eight years. (Since 1984)  It is also on track to be the largest number of votes won by an incumbent President seeking re-election in history. (Largely due to population growth)

2) The President joins FDR, Eisenhower and Reagan as the only Presidents in the last hundred years to be elected President twice with a majority of the popular vote- and the sixth president ever. (For the curious, the first three were Jackson, Grant and McKinley, although no popular vote tallies are available for the first few)

3) The uniform national swing from 2008 to 2012 in the Presidential Election was about 4%- he won by about 7% in 2008 and about 3% in 2012. If Republicans had doubled this swing and made it 8% across the board, the President would have lost the popular vote by 1%.... and still narrowly won re-election with Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all going to him and putting him over 270. In other words, the Republicans were less than halfway to actually beating the President.

4) The President was closer to winning Georgia than Romney was to winning Michigan and Minnesota, which some Republicans including top commentators were claiming he had a shot in... and nearly as close to winning Georgia as Romney was to winning supposed 'swing state' and Paul Ryan home state Wisconsin.

So... close? Not particularly in the end, no.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2012, 09:49:36 AM by The Unknown Caller »

Offline The Unknown Caller

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4972 on: November 11, 2012, 12:51:59 PM »
Presented without comment;

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Now that it’s a "tax" (thanks to Roberts), it will be even easier to repeal and defund when (not if) Romney wins…

Offline JTBaby

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4973 on: November 11, 2012, 02:05:55 PM »
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You misunderstand me; my point is that Obama is ahead in enough states even on RCP to put him over the top.

Is the election over, yet?


Yes.

Where you been ?

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Gallup has been slammed in the last 24 hours by analysts across the political spectrum, from Nate Silver to Charlie Cook to Larry Sabato.

Since those three guys are liberals, you’ll have to do a little better than that.  Here’s what Chuck Todd, another liberal, is saying about the race…

I'm very hesitant to hype this like that, but I feel like this one is that big and because, you know, there is something that happened in the campaign. It wasn't just that Romney got in it with that first debate and sort of, you know, at first you heard Democrats, 'Oh, Republicans are just coming home,' and that's what tightened the polls. And in fact, I actually heard some Republicans say that. I have to say, in the private data that I've heard about over the last couple of days, the last 72 hours, plus what you're seeing, I feel like there has been a structural shift. We're no longer in this it's even but the president has these advantages. The 'but the president has these advantages in the battleground states' is, I think, gone.  I mean, yes the president has an advantage in Ohio but we're starting to see a consistent Romney, very narrow, but a Romney lead in places like Florida. We're seeing Colorado totally dead even, Iowa closing, so I think that there is something structural that happened and that's why this debate, critical time.  If the president doesn't show up, he could end up opening a deficit that I don't know if one more debate could make it up. (October 15, 2012)

And ?


Offline JTBaby

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4974 on: November 11, 2012, 02:07:32 PM »
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You can't just suddenly switch metrics.

No matter which metric you look at (Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics), Obama is falling faster than Austrian daredevil You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login from the edge of space!

ROFLMAO!!!!!

C'mon back BGAB!!!!


Offline soapit

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4975 on: November 11, 2012, 02:29:07 PM »
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With more votes being counted, Florida has just been confirmed for the President and he has now surpassed Bush 2004 in the gap between himself and the challenger in the popular vote. Just another note to those who were trying to downplay the President's victory and portray it as a 'squeaker' or 'really close' etc;

1) In the popular vote, the President's final share - which looks like it will be about 50.9% when all votes are counted - will be the highest won by an incumbent President seeking re-election in twenty-eight years. (Since 1984)  It is also on track to be the largest number of votes won by an incumbent President seeking re-election in history. (Largely due to population growth)

2) The President joins FDR, Eisenhower and Reagan as the only Presidents in the last hundred years to be elected President twice with a majority of the popular vote- and the sixth president ever. (For the curious, the first three were Jackson, Grant and McKinley, although no popular vote tallies are available for the first few)

3) The uniform national swing from 2008 to 2012 in the Presidential Election was about 4%- he won by about 7% in 2008 and about 3% in 2012. If Republicans had doubled this swing and made it 8% across the board, the President would have lost the popular vote by 1%.... and still narrowly won re-election with Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all going to him and putting him over 270. In other words, the Republicans were less than halfway to actually beating the President.

4) The President was closer to winning Georgia than Romney was to winning Michigan and Minnesota, which some Republicans including top commentators were claiming he had a shot in... and nearly as close to winning Georgia as Romney was to winning supposed 'swing state' and Paul Ryan home state Wisconsin.

So... close? Not particularly in the end, no.

slow down, you're not giving them enough time to spin each of those to a republican win.

Offline imaginary friend

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4976 on: November 11, 2012, 03:55:13 PM »
On this morning's Face The Nation, during a discussion of the demographic breakdown of votes, Chuck Todd pointed out Obama won among Florida's Cuban-American population. Seems the 3rd-gen Cuban-Americans aren't as dependably Republican as their parents and grandparents.

Offline MarsGirl

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4977 on: November 12, 2012, 09:43:45 AM »
Oh, please, do not invoke BGAB!!! I am satisfied by his silence.

Offline The Unknown Caller

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4978 on: November 12, 2012, 11:24:25 AM »
It's just hard when he has the most abysmal record of prediction of anyone on this forum by about fifteen country miles. I think he has successfully called exactly one event in the last two years, the Wisconsin recall, which was also called by everyone else on both sides.

Here's another one incidentally; he said that African American and Hispanic voters would be turned off the President because of his support for gay marriage... even leaving aside that both groups voted for the President in record numbers, it's had the opposite effect;

For the first time ever, exit polls show clear majorities of both African Americans and Hispanic-Americans support same sex marriage. That's big!

Offline imaginary friend

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Re: Let the race for 2012 begin...
« Reply #4979 on: November 12, 2012, 04:46:22 PM »
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the author's pretty much a typical wingnut...but the comments are what you need to see. some conservatives are finally standing up and taking it to the crazies.