Let the Race for 2016 begin

[soapit]

agree with both of you on this i think.

i think people would be likely to consider voting for a party they hadnt before if they saw them as a "first black/hispanic/transexual president" but that will only go so far and currently wont overcome very ingrained and strong reasons those groups have to not vote republican.

so if the gop were more moderate and then had a hispanic candidate that would likely get them more than if they didnt. it only into play if both parties have policies that arent flat out unacceptable to that group.

i am sure that there would have been a very small minority who would have cast their votes for obama based on his race either way (who may not have bothered previously) but nothing like anything that would make a difference.

i'd just like to say for the benefit of TD and maximus that this is now my fifth opinion offered just since the election (all of them brilliant). i'll be keeping track from now on for the next time they have a sook saying i never contribute anything.

[The Unknown Caller]

so if the gop were more moderate and then had a hispanic candidate that would likely get them more than if they didnt. it only into play if both parties have policies that arent flat out unacceptable to that group.

Yeah, I think I would definitely agree with this. If the GOP had a Hispanic-Amerian candidate and was actually speaking to the issues which the Hispanic-American community cared about, they would get massively increased support from that community, moreso than if they just spoke to those issues and VASTLY moreso than if they just had a candidate but didn't speak to the issues.

Or, to put it another way, African American turnout did not increase for Obama just because he was African-American. It was because he was an African-American who spoke to the concerns of the African-American community and who they felt enthused would actually do something about those concerns because he had lived many of them and spoke about them. If he had just been an African American candidate but who didn't speak to that community or agree with them on any issue - if he'd been Herman Cain or Allen West- then he would never have won their votes or gotten their increased turnout.

i'd just like to say for the benefit of TD and maximus that this is now my fifth opinion offered just since the election (all of them brilliant). i'll be keeping track from now on for the next time they have a sook saying i never contribute anything.

Just ignore them, soapit, you contribute plenty. And I don't know how TD in particular gets off accusing anyone of sniping from the sidelines.

[soapit]

Just ignore them, soapit, you contribute plenty. And I don't know how TD in particular gets off accusing anyone of sniping from the sidelines.

ignore? nah, i quite enjoy the process of enlightening them.

[imaginary friend]

As a "Hispanic American" - I'm 2nd-gen American of all-Mexican descent - I should point out that the Latino population is not really a voting bloc in the traditional sense. I've seen a lot of talk about Florida senator Marco Rubio being some sort of savior for the GOP among Hispanics; the people pushing that point had better realize that the Cuban-American experience in America is completely different from what other Latinos have had to face. Any Cuban that managed to make it onto American sand after Castro's revolution (especially before the whole Elian Gonzalez episode) was welcomed into American life in a way that none of the rest of us ever saw. Trotting Rubio - or any Cuban-American, for that matter - out as a representative of and an ambassador to all Latinos is guaranteed to backfire.

Therefore, I fervently hope the GOP picks him as their nominee. 

[The Unknown Caller]

As a "Hispanic American" - I'm 2nd-gen American of all-Mexican descent - I should point out that the Latino population is not really a voting bloc in the traditional sense. I've seen a lot of talk about Florida senator Marco Rubio being some sort of savior for the GOP among Hispanics; the people pushing that point had better realize that the Cuban-American experience in America is completely different from what other Latinos have had to face. Any Cuban that managed to make it onto American sand after Castro's revolution (especially before the whole Elian Gonzalez episode) was welcomed into American life in a way that none of the rest of us ever saw. Trotting Rubio - or any Cuban-American, for that matter - out as a representative of and an ambassador to all Latinos is guaranteed to backfire.

My girlfriend is also Hispanic-American and she says exactly the same thing. (She is also the reason why I usually say 'Hispanic-American' as she personally doesn't like that the 'Hispanic' element is sometimes stressed at the expense of the latter, which is fair)

[Maximus]

As a "Hispanic American" - I'm 2nd-gen American of all-Mexican descent - I should point out that the Latino population is not really a voting bloc in the traditional sense. I've seen a lot of talk about Florida senator Marco Rubio being some sort of savior for the GOP among Hispanics; the people pushing that point had better realize that the Cuban-American experience in America is completely different from what other Latinos have had to face. Any Cuban that managed to make it onto American sand after Castro's revolution (especially before the whole Elian Gonzalez episode) was welcomed into American life in a way that none of the rest of us ever saw. Trotting Rubio - or any Cuban-American, for that matter - out as a representative of and an ambassador to all Latinos is guaranteed to backfire.

My girlfriend is also Hispanic-American and she says exactly the same thing. (She is also the reason why I usually say 'Hispanic-American' as she personally doesn't like that the 'Hispanic' element is sometimes stressed at the expense of the latter, which is fair)

Good for you!!!!!

I think Rubio will pull a lot of Hispanic votes, Bush got a large amount of Hispanic votes, Romney didn't-- So it's not like the Hispanic community won't vote GOP

[The Unknown Caller]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

[Maximus]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

Yes and No-- Hispanics tend to be socially conservative (Hence why Gay Marriage can't pass in California). A lot of them are fervent Catholics.

[JTBaby]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

Yes and No-- Hispanics tend to be socially conservative (Hence why Gay Marriage can't pass in California). A lot of them are fervent Catholics.

But a majority of non-white catholics voted obama.

[The Unknown Caller]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

Yes and No-- Hispanics tend to be socially conservative (Hence why Gay Marriage can't pass in California). A lot of them are fervent Catholics.

A majority of both Hispanics and Catholics in the 2012 exit polls supported gay marriage and the legalisation of abortion in all or most cases. Contrary to popular belief, Hispanics are slightly more socially liberal than whites as a whole.

And Obama won a majority of Catholics twice in a row.

[imaginary friend]

As a "Hispanic American" - I'm 2nd-gen American of all-Mexican descent - I should point out that the Latino population is not really a voting bloc in the traditional sense. I've seen a lot of talk about Florida senator Marco Rubio being some sort of savior for the GOP among Hispanics; the people pushing that point had better realize that the Cuban-American experience in America is completely different from what other Latinos have had to face. Any Cuban that managed to make it onto American sand after Castro's revolution (especially before the whole Elian Gonzalez episode) was welcomed into American life in a way that none of the rest of us ever saw. Trotting Rubio - or any Cuban-American, for that matter - out as a representative of and an ambassador to all Latinos is guaranteed to backfire.

My girlfriend is also Hispanic-American and she says exactly the same thing. (She is also the reason why I usually say 'Hispanic-American' as she personally doesn't like that the 'Hispanic' element is sometimes stressed at the expense of the latter, which is fair)

Good for you!!!!!

I think Rubio will pull a lot of Hispanic votes, Bush got a large amount of Hispanic votes, Romney didn't-- So it's not like the Hispanic community won't vote GOP

Bush didn't have to run in a climate where his fellow GOP members have spent 5 years demonizing any and every non-Cuban Hispanic-American. Remember Arizona's SB 1070? Arizona's been taken away from me! I could go down there for a visit and find myself having to show some fat donut-junkie cop proof of citizenship just because the sandblasted fossils who run that state wanted to  lock 2nd-class status on the growing Latino population there. Do you seriously think I'm the only Latino in America who doesn't live in AZ that knows that? Let me tell you something about the Mexican-American community in particular: we tend to hold grudges almost like the Croats and the Serbs. My niece had a baby in May, and, if the GOP doesn't change drastically, and fast, someday that girl will tell her own grandkids what a bunch of racists the GOP are, should they still exist.

If the GOP wants to keep dreaming that they can do what they've been doing and get the Latino vote, let 'em dream on. They're gonna have to wake up sometime, and I doubt they're gonna like what they see.

In other news, the Buffalo News has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President in 2016.

[Tumbling Dice]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

Yes and No-- Hispanics tend to be socially conservative (Hence why Gay Marriage can't pass in California). A lot of them are fervent Catholics.

I think the main thing for the Republicans is to be more inclusive and less exclusive.  The more inclusive a party is the more votes it gets, while the more exclusive it is the less votes it gets.  Remember, politicians are salespeople and are selling to the electorate, not t'other way round.  I think Rubio seems a very plausible choice of candidate in 2016 and could attract a lot of Hispanic-American votes because, as you say, they tend to be socially conservative and have a propensity to start their own businesses relative to the rest of the population, but the Repubs needs to be inclusive and that needs to be reflected in their policies and communication.

[Maximus]

Rubio could... but it's all about the policy.

Yes and No-- Hispanics tend to be socially conservative (Hence why Gay Marriage can't pass in California). A lot of them are fervent Catholics.

A majority of both Hispanics and Catholics in the 2012 exit polls supported gay marriage and the legalisation of abortion in all or most cases. Contrary to popular belief, Hispanics are slightly more socially liberal than whites as a whole.

And Obama won a majority of Catholics twice in a row.

I disagree on the surface, I will have to look at the numbers.

When you look at abortion most people in the U.S. even though they are prolife do support an exception for RI and Health of mother. However that is not the democratic position or the Obama position which is abortion for any reason at any time which only 26% of support. You keep on twisting this to support your side, and your view. But the posistion of most American's is the same as Romney's.

Hispanics are more socially conservative as whites as a whole

Hispanics are well-known to be pro-life; in fact, one poll showed that only 25 percent of them support legal abortion.

 Prop 8 While a slim majority of whites voted against it, 53 percent of Hispanics and 70 percent of blacks voted yes and won its passage


http://latinizenow.com/


Further you can't use Hispanics as a monolithic group--Mexicans tend to more conservative, PR's more liberal. Cubans a mix of both. (hence why prop 8 failed in Cali)

In Texas (mostly Mexican Hispanics), 46 percent of Hispanics say they are conservative, 36 percent moderate and 18 percent liberal. The hot button is immigration.

Although Latinos are more conservative than many other groups in their views on same-sex marriage and abortion, these issues do not predict the party they affiliate with.

Nationally, Latinos identify more as Democrats than as Republicans by more than 3 to 1, according to the Pew Research Center. The Democratic advantage is even higher in states such as New York and New Jersey. And there are variations among Hispanic groups; this is not a monolithic voting bloc. Puerto Ricans identify more as Democrats than do Mexican Americans, for example.

Cuban Americans are the only group of Hispanic origin to prefer the Republican Party, though their attachment to the GOP is declining. For example, in South Florida’s Miami-Dade County, where approximately half of all Cuban Americans in the country reside, Republican identification among that group dropped from 68.5 percent in 2004 to 59 percent in 2008. Cuban American Republicans are more likely to say they are “pro-choice” and are more supportive of government-provided health care than Mexican American Democrats.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-latino-voters/2012/10/05/c61d5bc8-0271-11e2-8102-ebee9c66e190_story.html

You have to look at each group separately   

Mexico - yet while it has long embraced socialist parties, abortion is illegal nationwide.

[Tumbling Dice]

Given that abortion is such a divisive issue in America at roughly 50/50 according to TUC, do you think the best compromise would be to take the prospect of reforming Roe v Wade off the table completely and leave it up to individuals' moral consciences to decide whether to have an abortion, provided that the state doesn't compel religious organisations - including religious, non-publicly funded, charities - to have any part in them?

[Maximus]

From my experience: When I was a young Officer most of the racial tension in my platoon was between Mexicans and PR's. To a point they were making racial slurs about each other. When I asked when of my NCO's what was going on SSG Maritnez replied "F------ PR's they are our _______'s (I don't even want to abbreviate the word he said, it was a slur that is way beyond the pale)

I was very troubled by this so I went to one of my best friends (A PR officer whom I went thr/my Officer basic course with) he said, yeah there is a lot of tension between latin groups, --in fact there was an unofficial hierarchy based on who was more purely Spanish (he said which was BS in his opinion) But to go on-- the Colombians put themselves on top, followed by Cubans, Mexicans, Central Americans then PR's.

Any way that was my experience at least and it was 18 years ago.

I think the GOP should focus on Mexican and Cuban Americans, I don't know if we will make in roads into the PR community which tends to be more Urban