Let the Race for 2016 begin

[Maximus]

Given that abortion is such a divisive issue in America at roughly 50/50 according to TUC, do you think the best compromise would be to take the prospect of reforming Roe v Wade off the table completely and leave it up to individuals' moral consciences to decide whether to have an abortion, provided that the state doesn't compel religious organisations - including religious, non-publicly funded, charities - to have any part in them?

TUC massages the numbers:

54% are pro life
46% are pro choice but only 26% think abortion should be legal in all cases

[Tumbling Dice]

From my experience: When I was a young Officer most of the racial tension in my platoon was between Mexicans and PR's. To a point they were making racial slurs about each other. When I asked when of my NCO's what was going on SSG Maritnez replied "F------ PR's they are our _______'s (I don't even want to abbreviate the word he said, it was a slur that is way beyond the pale)

I was very troubled by this so I went to one of my best friends (A PR officer whom I went thr/my Officer basic course with) he said, yeah there is a lot of tension between latin groups, --in fact there was an unofficial hierarchy based on who was more purely Spanish (he said which was BS in his opinion) But to go on-- the Colombians put themselves on top, followed by Cubans, Mexicans, Central Americans then PR's.

Any way that was my experience at least and it was 18 years ago.

I think the GOP should focus on Mexican and Cuban Americans, I don't know if we will make in roads into the PR community which tends to be more Urban

One of the advantages of the American 'melting pot' is that Hispanic immigrants are likely to become more tolerant towards each other.  Of course this may take time, after all African-American troops were still segregated from white troops during WWII.

[The Unknown Caller]

Just to be clear, what Maximus said is inaccurate at every level. As has been noted time and time again, the number of people calling themselves "pro-choice" or "pro-life" changes every year but is essentially at 50/50.

However - and this is something I had not previously realised, he is wrong for more important reasons than that. The pro-choice/pro-life question is an abstract one. But when you ask people more concrete questions, you get a very different response. If the question is "Do you support Roe vs Wade" OR "Do you believe abortion should be legal in or most cases?" (By the way, 'most' there is crucial. Maximus keeps trying to claim that abortion just gets higher support because people believe in the health of mother and rape exceptions; this is clearly untrue here as these polls allow them to say they oppose abortion in "Most" cases but still leave those exceptions)

And the answers we get?

Kaiser Family Foundation - Summer 2012 - Legal in All or Most - 55%
Pew -  April 2012 - Legal in All or Most - 54%
Quinnipiac - Feb 2012 - LEgal in All or Most - 55%
Quinnipac - Feb 2012 - Support Roe Vs Wade? 64%

In fact, take a basic look at a graph of the WaPo/Kaiser poll on abortion for the last fifteen years or so;



So actually, the American people's view is even further from Maximus' than he was trying to claim. When it comes to abstractions, neither pro-life nor pro-choice is a consistent majority. But time after time, poll after poll, for as long as it has been polled, a very clear majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal all or most of the time. (Again, not 'some' - 'most') And what did the 2012 election exit polls find? The same as every single other exit poll for twenty-five years.... that about 58% of Americans believe abortion should be legal most or all of the time.

And by the way, when he tries to claim that the Democratic position is for abortion to be legal all of the time without exceptions and that's unpopular, it's worth remembering that the Republican platform calls for it to be illegal most of the time without exceptions, which is consistently even less popular. And that the Democrats are far more tolerant of pro-life and less stringent pro-choice members than the Republicans are of non-doctrinare pro-lifers.

[imaginary friend]

From my experience: When I was a young Officer most of the racial tension in my platoon was between Mexicans and PR's. To a point they were making racial slurs about each other. When I asked when of my NCO's what was going on SSG Maritnez replied "F------ PR's they are our _______'s (I don't even want to abbreviate the word he said, it was a slur that is way beyond the pale)

I was very troubled by this so I went to one of my best friends (A PR officer whom I went thr/my Officer basic course with) he said, yeah there is a lot of tension between latin groups, --in fact there was an unofficial hierarchy based on who was more purely Spanish (he said which was BS in his opinion) But to go on-- the Colombians put themselves on top, followed by Cubans, Mexicans, Central Americans then PR's.

Any way that was my experience at least and it was 18 years ago.

I think the GOP should focus on Mexican and Cuban Americans, I don't know if we will make in roads into the PR community which tends to be more Urban

It's gotten better, at least among younger Hispanics, but it definitely still exists and it's almost certainly the least attractive trait among us. We need to get over that crap fast.

You wanna see a bunch of people put on airs about being more "Spanish", check out the Argentinians, especially the ones from the northern half of the country. They put the Colombians to shame in that regard, lol!

By the way, I know you're only using "PR" as an abbreviation, but it's been used as a pejorative against Puerto Ricans by other Hispanics for ages.

[Maximus]

From my experience: When I was a young Officer most of the racial tension in my platoon was between Mexicans and PR's. To a point they were making racial slurs about each other. When I asked when of my NCO's what was going on SSG Maritnez replied "F------ PR's they are our _______'s (I don't even want to abbreviate the word he said, it was a slur that is way beyond the pale)

I was very troubled by this so I went to one of my best friends (A PR officer whom I went thr/my Officer basic course with) he said, yeah there is a lot of tension between latin groups, --in fact there was an unofficial hierarchy based on who was more purely Spanish (he said which was BS in his opinion) But to go on-- the Colombians put themselves on top, followed by Cubans, Mexicans, Central Americans then PR's.

Any way that was my experience at least and it was 18 years ago.

I think the GOP should focus on Mexican and Cuban Americans, I don't know if we will make in roads into the PR community which tends to be more Urban

It's gotten better, at least among younger Hispanics, but it definitely still exists and it's almost certainly the least attractive trait among us. We need to get over that crap fast.

You wanna see a bunch of people put on airs about being more "Spanish", check out the Argentinians, especially the ones from the northern half of the country. They put the Colombians to shame in that regard, lol!

By the way, I know you're only using "PR" as an abbreviation, but it's been used as a pejorative against Puerto Ricans by other Hispanics for ages.

Sorry man didn't know

My buddy who I went to OBC with- His wife made this homemade Flan that was awesome-She also made this rice dish a yellow rice with ham and shrimp. They were just great people.

[Maximus]

First off you are using exit polls and we already know a lot of evangellicals didn't vote:

While Americans' identification as "pro-choice" has waned over the past year, their fundamental views about the morality and legality of abortion have held steady. Half of Americans, 51%, consider abortion morally wrong and 38% say it is morally acceptable -- nearly identical to the results in May 2011.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154838/pro-choice-americans-record-low.aspx

Since 2001, at least half of Americans have consistently chosen the middle position, saying abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, and the 52% saying this today is similar to the 50% in May 2011.
This for Rape and Incest the same position that Romney had

The 25% currently wanting abortion to be legal in all cases Obama's position

[The Unknown Caller]

Sorry, Max, but you have nothing on this and your post makes it pretty clear that you know it. We're not talking moral abstractions, we're talking the concrete question of whether it should be legal or not. And every single poll says that a majority support abortion as a legal practice and not just for rape and incest.

Oh, and I'm not just using 2012 exit polls, I'm also using 2008... and 2004... and every single presidential election since 1996 which is when they started asking. And election exit polls are far more solid than standard polls anyway. You can't just say, "Well, evangelicals didn't vote!" because there were lots and lots of pro-choice groups which didn't necessarily vote either. It's still the best data we have.

A solid majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Not "all or some", not just leaving the rape and incest exemptions.... most. And that's not just one poll, that's essentially every single poll that's been done on it, including the Washington Post poll every year since 1996 and five presidential exit polls in a row.

[Maximus]

Sorry, Max, but you have nothing on this and your post makes it pretty clear that you know it. We're not talking moral abstractions, we're talking the concrete question of whether it should be legal or not. And every single poll says that a majority support abortion as a legal practice and not just for rape and incest.

Oh, and I'm not just using 2012 exit polls, I'm also using 2008... and 2004... and every single presidential election since 1996 which is when they started asking. And election exit polls are far more solid than standard polls anyway. You can't just say, "Well, evangelicals didn't vote!" because there were lots and lots of pro-choice groups which didn't necessarily vote either. It's still the best data we have.

A solid majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Not "all or some", not just leaving the rape and incest exemptions.... most. And that's not just one poll, that's essentially every single poll that's been done on it, including the Washington Post poll every year since 1996 and five presidential exit polls in a row.

you are readding the numbers backwards

a solid majority says it should only be leagal in certin cases--you cannot add on the hyper nuts that want abprtion in all cases. You are looking at through lib eyes. Not real eyes.

[The Unknown Caller]

A majority say legal in most or all cases.

A minority say legal in no or 'some' cases.

That's pretty simple.

And it's consistently true in poll after poll after poll, by company after company, year after year.

And all you can do is cling to one Gallup poll from one year, two weeks after Gallup's polling model proved embarrassingly abysmal, and even then you have to distort it to try to get the result you want. Oh, and pretend that the Democratic Party platform's position is "extreme" and "hyper nuts" even though it's actually more popular than the Republican Party Platform's position of no exceptions. It's pretty sad.

[imaginary friend]

bye-bye, Rubio:   http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/marco-rubio-says-maybe-earth-created-7-days-so-much-gop-getting-smarter

[Inishfree]

I hope whoever the final candidates, both republican and democrat do not divide the country.

Both parties need to find a little moderation.  There were issues that were so opposite of each other and what the 2012 candidates stood for.  It made it morally/ethically impossible for some of us independent moderates to vote for either.

This was the first election where religious faith played such an important factor.  If you came out of the closet and admitted to being a Catholic.  You were attacked by many.  Homophobe, supporter of child molestion, just to name a few.  Cruel, very cruel words.  No respect or trying to understand why Catholics go to Mass.  Hint......Holy Communion.

I had never experienced anything like this before.  I took for granted, by living in America.  Ensured my religious freedom and also, an understanding seperation, of Church and State.  Something my Irish ancestors held dear to their hearts.  Both Methodist and Catholic, alike.  I pray.  I never experience this again. 

[soapit]

No respect or trying to understand why Catholics go to Mass.  Hint......Holy Communion.

i personally very much do respect free bread and wine

[Inishfree]

No respect or trying to understand why Catholics go to Mass.  Hint......Holy Communion.

i personally very much do respect free bread and wine

We aim to please.........

[The Unknown Caller]

Here's a thought; it's been suggested before here that the GOP doesn't need to worry about young people because young people are always more liberal and older people are always more conservative. But as a matter of political science, this isn't true. People are shaped by their political experiences around their teens and they tend to keep those preferences for the rest of their lives; hence we can follow distinctive age cohorts through American politics. Those who were shaped by the New Deal, for instance, would become ardent liberals for the rest of their lives and help power moderate Republican and then more liberal Democratic victories in the fifties and sixties. But then those who were shaped by the end of the sixties and the early seventies became a right-wing age cohort which powered Reagan's victories, etc.

A nice illustration of this is the 1992 election. Obviously Clinton won by quite a lot overall. But when you look at the demographics, he won by a good bit among those who grew up during Reagan's fairly poor second term and the first Bush recession, he won by only a little among those who grew up during the seventies and early eighties... and he won by a mile (Even reaching 50% support in an election where he won 43% overall) among those over sixty-five, who had grown up during the New Deal.

The last two elections have seen young people who grew up during the Bush years and whose political experiences were shaped by things like the Iraq War; the result is MASSIVE age group disparities and by some distance the most liberal youth vote since the 1940s. Today's young people are more likely to support legalised abortion, gay marriage, etc, yes.... but also, strikingly, and for the first time ever, they are also more likely to say that the Government should be doing more rather than less and to identify as 'liberal' rather than 'conservative'. That has simply never been true before with voters under 24.

That is really really important for American politics because it means there is an unusually highly liberal age cohort which will be voting in elections for decades to come. The good news is that it's likely they won't lose the youth vote by as much in future elections as new age cohorts become first time voters. The bad news is that it's because they'll be losing the middle-aged vote by unusually large margins as today's young people become tomorrow's 30-somethings.

Just a thought; another demographic challenge the GOP faces.

[Maximus]

A majority say legal in most or all cases.

A minority say legal in no or 'some' cases.

That's pretty simple.

And it's consistently true in poll after poll after poll, by company after company, year after year.

And all you can do is cling to one Gallup poll from one year, two weeks after Gallup's polling model proved embarrassingly abysmal, and even then you have to distort it to try to get the result you want. Oh, and pretend that the Democratic Party platform's position is "extreme" and "hyper nuts" even though it's actually more popular than the Republican Party Platform's position of no exceptions. It's pretty sad.

You simply can't read--you are being dishonest, becuase you want to think more people agree with you. Once again you need to quit trying to impose your sinful views on us and worry about your own country.

A majority of Americans are pro life

only a small minority say abortion should be legal in all cases (in the high 20's)

By the way whats up with the press being honest all of the sudden?

Chuck todd said this morning--Taxing the rich is simply not enough

Chris Matt... corrected a democratic opreative when she said the house only went GOP becuase she said it was gerrymandered--he remined her that there are a lot of wasted dem votes in districts that went 99% democratic--wow

CM also said there has to cut in entitlements and ss--

When did these uys become Republican?

where was this honesty before the election