Examine the evidence about u2 silence

[bethere]

I would rather the band be broken up then to get mediocre records.  The b-sides from the 80's and 90's are as good as just about anything they've done since ATYCLB. (yes flame away).

A broken up U2 will not tarnish the record that they created and allow the vaults to be opened up - U2 music I'm more interested then anything new they might come out with. 

It will also free them up for a reunion tour/album in about a decade.

HTDAAB is a masterpiece. The only U2 albums that are better are Achtung Baby and Joshua Tree.

[bethere]

http://www.atu2.com/news/bono-u2s-best-3-weeks-in-the-studio-since-1979.html

This source has Bono saying that there *won't* be an album, unless they find something really special. It has them in the song writing process. But this is by no means a promise of a new album. In some ways it is an admission that they are struggling. Much, much earlier Bono was making noise about Songs of Ascent, or even two or three albums. But when it gets down to brass tacks, they have thrown all of that out and are still trying to find songs that work, let alone be in the midst of actually recording an album.

I think we need something more concrete than this to indicate that there will even be a new album at all.

            Another U2 has broken up post. Not unusual. We have been getting these since as early as 1988. A quarter century of rumors about U2 breaking up.

[bethere]

http://www.atu2.com/news/bono-u2s-best-3-weeks-in-the-studio-since-1979.html

This source has Bono saying that there *won't* be an album, unless they find something really special. It has them in the song writing process. But this is by no means a promise of a new album. In some ways it is an admission that they are struggling. Much, much earlier Bono was making noise about Songs of Ascent, or even two or three albums. But when it gets down to brass tacks, they have thrown all of that out and are still trying to find songs that work, let alone be in the midst of actually recording an album.

I think we need something more concrete than this to indicate that there will even be a new album at all.

So it will be 4.5 years since NLOTH if the November 2013 date has any truth to it. That is pretty lame. I don't understand why it takes them so long. There was all that talk way back when they were on tour and they played a huge gig, it may have even been rose bowl and they flew straight to the studio to record as they were on such a high. Add to that Songs of ascent, which I know they are a long way from, the rumored sessions with Carl Faulk, RedOne and David Guetta, the favorable sessions with Brian Burton and yet we are still no closer to anything news wise. It really surprises me.

I've read various reports that at Olympic studios prior to the release of NLOTH it was a manic time, 3 songs were dropped, 2 were rewritten, Bono has stated he doesn't want to do that again. The lesson has obviously been learned and they are being extremely careful in every respect. I just wish we had some news!

People shouldn't be hunting for ANY news until September of 2013. The band typically takes a year to write and a year to record a new album. Thats AFTER they have completed the previous tour as well. Were not even 18 months past the end of the last tour though.

More importantly, the album must timed with the best release schedule and cooridinated with any massive global tour that will promote it. There must be a natural break of a about 3 years between the tours in order for the band to tour on the scale that they do. Combine that with the fact that the album will be released normally within about 6 months of the start of the the new tour and its easy to see how the length between albums is automatically set at 4 years at a minimum or even 5 years.

         The shortest interval between albums with a tour that you would ever see is probably 3 years, but the band would have to shorten their tours to meet that time frame as well as shorten their studio and writing time as well.

[BurningDownLove]

There are too many rumors, and I feel it's distorting my perception and love for the band and their music. U2 will release an album when they release an album.

[Pasha]

There are too many rumors, and I feel it's distorting my perception and love for the band and their music. U2 will release an album when they release an album.

Or not.

[Tumbling Dice]

It could well be that U2 have already recorded most of what will be the next album and they are currently working on editing the material and mixing it.  However, even if the album is nearly completed they will still probably hold the finished product back for a release date that coincides with a planned tour.  I predict the next tour will commence in the summer of 2014, so that will mean an album release late 2013 or early 2014.

[Pasha]

It could well be that U2 have already recorded most of what will be the next album and they are currently working on editing the material and mixing it.  However, even if the album is nearly completed they will still probably hold the finished product back for a release date that coincides with a planned tour.  I predict the next tour will commence in the summer of 2014, so that will mean an album release late 2013 or early 2014.

By that time the music would be stale and no longer feel creative. They would have too much chance to scrap it all and start again, and then be rushing to meet their popline.

Sorry I forgot to write in all bold letters.

[eddyjedi]

It could well be that U2 have already recorded most of what will be the next album and they are currently working on editing the material and mixing it.  However, even if the album is nearly completed they will still probably hold the finished product back for a release date that coincides with a planned tour.  I predict the next tour will commence in the summer of 2014, so that will mean an album release late 2013 or early 2014.

By that time the music would be stale and no longer feel creative. They would have too much chance to scrap it all and start again, and then be rushing to meet their popline.

Sorry I forgot to write in all bold letters.

Couldn't agree more, can't afford to hold back anymore. It's do or die this time round.

[Manos73]

I try not to get my hopes up too much for each new U2 record.  Few bands have made it as long as they have and none of those bands kept up real quality.  I was actually surprised at how good NLOTH was but it doesn't hold a candle to their best work. 

So I try to keep expectations low and then if it is good then I enjoy it even more.

[miryclay]

Am I correct in saying it has been 46 months since the last u2 album?

June 2013 it will have been the longest time in between?

[acr0bat]

Am I correct in saying it has been 46 months since the last u2 album?

June 2013 it will have been the longest time in between?

I believe so. Feb/March will be 4 years since the release of NLOTH. And the gap between HTDAAB and NLOTH was about 4 years 3 months. Which would ake June 2013 the same gap as before. I think a release sometime in 2013 is still very realistic. Maybe they have already recorded most of what will be the new album. If they don't want to tour till 2014 I can't see them releasing it this far in advance, even if it is nearly done.

[Tumbling Dice]

It could well be that U2 have already recorded most of what will be the next album and they are currently working on editing the material and mixing it.  However, even if the album is nearly completed they will still probably hold the finished product back for a release date that coincides with a planned tour.  I predict the next tour will commence in the summer of 2014, so that will mean an album release late 2013 or early 2014.

By that time the music would be stale and no longer feel creative. They would have too much chance to scrap it all and start again, and then be rushing to meet their popline.

Sorry I forgot to write in all bold letters.

Couldn't agree more, can't afford to hold back anymore. It's do or die this time round.

Albums often have a lengthy gestation period.  From what I've read U2 have been working on new songs since the 360 tour.  It took a while for COBL or IGWSHIA or WUDM to eventually be released, but they didn't seem to be worried about those songs becoming stale.  Prince, for example, often had his next album in the can before he embarked on the tour promoting his latest album.  Basically, U2 will only release their new album to coincide with their next tour, so it's the timing of the next tour which is the most relevant consideration in determining when U2 will release the new album.

[Pasha]

It could well be that U2 have already recorded most of what will be the next album and they are currently working on editing the material and mixing it.  However, even if the album is nearly completed they will still probably hold the finished product back for a release date that coincides with a planned tour.  I predict the next tour will commence in the summer of 2014, so that will mean an album release late 2013 or early 2014.

By that time the music would be stale and no longer feel creative. They would have too much chance to scrap it all and start again, and then be rushing to meet their popline.

Sorry I forgot to write in all bold letters.

Couldn't agree more, can't afford to hold back anymore. It's do or die this time round.

Albums often have a lengthy gestation period.  From what I've read U2 have been working on new songs since the 360 tour.  It took a while for COBL or IGWSHIA or WUDM to eventually be released, but they didn't seem to be worried about those songs becoming stale.  Prince, for example, often had his next album in the can before he embarked on the tour promoting his latest album.  Basically, U2 will only release their new album to coincide with their next tour, so it's the timing of the next tour which is the most relevant consideration in determining when U2 will release the new album.

That's an interesting theory about time between the end of one tour and the start of the next. I did some looking into that.

Gap between Lovetown and ZOOTV:  Jan 10, 1990 to Feb 29, 1992.  (2 years, 2 months)
ZOOTV (Zoomerang) to POPMART: December 10, 1993 to April 25, 1997 (3 years, 5 months)  (A longer gap due to the Passengers project)
POPMART to (All you cant leave behind promo tour) / Elevation: March 21, 1998 to September 27, 2000 (2 years, 6 months)
Elevation to (Atomic Bomb promo tour) / Vertigo: December 2, 2001 to October 15, 2004 (2 years, 10 months)
Vertigo to (No line promo) / 360: December 9, 2006 to February 3, 2009 (2 years, 2 months)

Treating the 3 yrs 5 mths as an aberration gives an average of 2 years and 5 months in between the end of one tour and the start of the next.

360 ended on July 30, 2011. Two years and five months later is January 1st, 2014 for the start of a new tour. A November release could fit into this pattern, although January is never the time to start a tour, but March or April 2014 could be.

An analysis of the stats of the last 5 tours shows that they are taking longer to get through the schedule than they did when younger (no surprises there).
ZOOTV/ Zoomerang: 160 shows from Feb 29, 1992 to December 10, 1993 = 1 show per 4.13 days.
POPMART: 98 shows from April 25, 1997 to March 21, 1998 = 1 show every 3.37 days.
Elevation + promo: 134 shows from September 27, 2000 to December 2, 2001 = 1 show every 3.22 days
Vertigo + promo: 147 shows from October 15, 2004 to December 9, 2006 = 1 show every 5.34 shows (but there was a large delay due to Edge's daughter's illness)
360 + promo: 137 shows from February 3, 2009 to July 30, 2011 = 1 show every 6.61 days  (with a few months of for Bono's back surgery).

Leaving out the POPMART stats as an aberration, a tour has an average of 145 shows. A realistic pace is no more than 1 show per 5 days for the whole tour (725 days, 5 days short of 2 years).

Potential schedule to fit in the 3 alleged tours needed to fill the Live Nation contract:

Next tour: March 2014 - Mar 2016.  (Followed by a 2 1/2 year gap)
Following tour: Sep 2018 - Sep 2020.
Final tour: Mar 2022 - Mar 2024  (Finishing at 64.)

This is not very realistic in my opinion. Numbers don't lie, and the averages will only continue to blow out.  Still, there may be another tour in 2014... or not.

[Tumbling Dice]

That's an interesting theory about time between the end of one tour and the start of the next.

Where did I advance a theory about the time between the end of one tour and the start of the next?

I did some looking into that.

Gap between Lovetown and ZOOTV:  Jan 10, 1990 to Feb 29, 1992.  (2 years, 2 months)
ZOOTV (Zoomerang) to POPMART: December 10, 1993 to April 25, 1997 (3 years, 5 months)  (A longer gap due to the Passengers project)
POPMART to (All you cant leave behind promo tour) / Elevation: March 21, 1998 to September 27, 2000 (2 years, 6 months)
Elevation to (Atomic Bomb promo tour) / Vertigo: December 2, 2001 to October 15, 2004 (2 years, 10 months)
Vertigo to (No line promo) / 360: December 9, 2006 to February 3, 2009 (2 years, 2 months)

Treating the 3 yrs 5 mths as an aberration gives an average of 2 years and 5 months in between the end of one tour and the start of the next.

360 ended on July 30, 2011. Two years and five months later is January 1st, 2014 for the start of a new tour. A November release could fit into this pattern, although January is never the time to start a tour, but March or April 2014 could be.

An analysis of the stats of the last 5 tours shows that they are taking longer to get through the schedule than they did when younger (no surprises there).
ZOOTV/ Zoomerang: 160 shows from Feb 29, 1992 to December 10, 1993 = 1 show per 4.13 days.
POPMART: 98 shows from April 25, 1997 to March 21, 1998 = 1 show every 3.37 days.
Elevation + promo: 134 shows from September 27, 2000 to December 2, 2001 = 1 show every 3.22 days
Vertigo + promo: 147 shows from October 15, 2004 to December 9, 2006 = 1 show every 5.34 shows (but there was a large delay due to Edge's daughter's illness)
360 + promo: 137 shows from February 3, 2009 to July 30, 2011 = 1 show every 6.61 days  (with a few months of for Bono's back surgery).

Leaving out the POPMART stats as an aberration, a tour has an average of 145 shows. A realistic pace is no more than 1 show per 5 days for the whole tour (725 days, 5 days short of 2 years).

Potential schedule to fit in the 3 alleged tours needed to fill the Live Nation contract:

Next tour: March 2014 - Mar 2016.  (Followed by a 2 1/2 year gap)
Following tour: Sep 2018 - Sep 2020.
Final tour: Mar 2022 - Mar 2024  (Finishing at 64.)

This is not very realistic in my opinion. Numbers don't lie, and the averages will only continue to blow out.  Still, there may be another tour in 2014... or not.

I've already predicted that U2's next tour will commence in the summer of 2014. 

As for the rest of your analysis - including where you dubiously count promo appearances among actual shows performed - I would say I've got another bethere-type poster on my hands.

[JTBaby]

They should take as long as they need to make a great album. God forbid another steaming pile of crap like HTDAAB.